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Property Crime Trends in Douglas, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Douglas, Alabama, a small community with a population of 3,407 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 62.96%, from 54 to 20 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 5.74%, from 3,222 to 3,407 residents.
The burglary trend in the city shows significant variability over time. In 2010, there were only 2 reported burglaries, which increased dramatically to 47 in 2012, representing a 2,250% increase. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 5 incidents. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2012 at 14.33 and fell to 1.47 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.19% in 2021 before dropping to 0.04% in 2022. This volatility suggests periods of heightened vulnerability followed by improved security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a general downward trend. From a high of 49 cases in 2010 and 2011, the number decreased to 11 in 2022, a 77.55% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 15.21 in 2010 to 3.23 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively low, peaking at 0.07% in 2021 and dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This consistent decline in larceny-theft suggests improved community vigilance or successful crime prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years. From 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 11 in 2016, before decreasing to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.93 in 2010 to a high of 3.35 in 2016, settling at 1.17 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts reached a maximum of 0.15% in 2016 and stood at 0.06% in 2022. These fluctuations may reflect changing opportunities for this type of crime or varying effectiveness of targeted prevention measures.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only two years reporting zero incidents (2011 and 2021). The lack of consistent data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $38,063 in 2013 to $50,528 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. However, this correlation is not perfect, as evidenced by fluctuations in crime rates during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to approximately 15-18 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.
In summary, Douglas has shown a generally positive trend in reducing property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in larceny-theft and burglary rates. While motor vehicle theft has fluctuated, it too shows an overall decreasing trend. These improvements, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a strengthening community fabric and potentially more effective crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for continued community safety and well-being.
