Robbery trends in the city have been nearly non-existent, with only one reported case in 2013. This single incident represented 0.03% of the state's robberies that year. In all other years from 2010 to 2022, robbery rates remained at zero. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.27 in 2013 (1 incident with a population of 3,738) but has since returned to and maintained at zero.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults increased from 3 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, with fluctuations in between. Notably, there was a spike to 6 incidents in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people has varied, from 0.85 in 2010 to 1.23 in 2022, peaking at 1.70 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has ranged from 0.02% to 0.05% over the years, indicating a relatively small impact on state-wide figures.

A strong correlation exists between the city's demographic changes and violent crime trends. As the population decreased by 7.39% from 2010 to 2022, the violent crime rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.85 to 1.23, suggesting that despite a smaller population, the incidence of violent crime, particularly aggravated assault, has risen slightly.

Racial distribution trends also show a potential correlation with violent crime rates. The white population percentage increased from 83% in 2013 to 88% in 2022, while the black population remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from 4% to 6%. During this period, the overall violent crime rate fluctuated but generally increased, suggesting that changes in racial composition may have some relationship to crime trends, though this correlation should be interpreted cautiously.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Thorsby may see a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 5-6 incidents annually, with aggravated assault likely remaining the predominant form of violent crime. The rate per 1,000 people could potentially rise to around 1.5-1.8, assuming population trends continue their current trajectory.

In summary, Thorsby has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and rapes, combined with very low robbery rates, paints a picture of a generally safe community. However, the slight upward trend in aggravated assaults, even as the population decreases, suggests a need for focused prevention strategies. The town's crime trends, while showing some fluctuations, have remained relatively stable, contributing minimally to Alabama's overall violent crime statistics.