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Property Crime Trends in Dexter, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reductions
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dexter, Missouri, a small urban area of 7.21 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 48.13%, from 320 to 166 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a slight increase of 1.58%, growing from 12,881 to 13,085 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 70 burglaries, which decreased to 25 in 2022, representing a 64.29% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 5.43 in 2010 to 1.91 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022, with peaks of 0.33% in 2018 and 0.28% in 2020. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglaries has remained relatively stable in recent years.
Larceny-theft incidents also declined over the period, from 239 in 2010 to 125 in 2022, a 47.70% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 18.56 to 9.55. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.21% to 0.16%, indicating a slight improvement relative to state trends. This reduction in larceny-theft rates suggests an overall enhancement in property security within the community.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility. In 2010, there were 11 incidents, which increased to 16 in 2022, a 45.45% rise. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0.85 to 1.22. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.08% to 0.07%, despite the local increase. This indicates that while the city experienced a rise in motor vehicle thefts, it did not significantly impact its contribution to state statistics.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. From 1 incident in 2010 to 0 in 2022, with fluctuations in between, including peaks of 3 cases in 2016 and 2 in 2021. The arson rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 0.08 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated dramatically, from 0.10% in 2010 to 0% in 2022, with a high of 0.35% in 2016.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $42,647 in 2013 to $46,367 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a slight correlation between the decrease in owner-occupied housing (from 68% in 2013 to 67% in 2022) and the reduction in property crimes, though this relationship is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are likely to stabilize or decrease slightly, while motor vehicle thefts may continue to fluctuate or show a modest increase.
In summary, Dexter has experienced a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained relatively stable or decreased slightly in most categories. These trends, coupled with the modest population growth and increasing median income, suggest a gradual enhancement in the overall safety and economic stability of the community. However, ongoing attention to motor vehicle theft prevention may be necessary to address the slight upward trend in this category.
