Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but ultimately decreased. From 15 incidents in 2019, it dropped to 10 in 2022, a 33.33% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.32 in 2019 to 1.53 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.37% to 0.30%, suggesting that this reduction was less pronounced than the state average.

Arson cases in the city have been minimal, with only one reported incident in 2019 and none in subsequent years. This represents a 100% decrease, with the rate per 1,000 residents dropping from 0.15 in 2019 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases fell from 0.42% in 2019 to 0% in later years.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $67,968 in 2019 to $73,414 in 2022, total property crimes per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 16.07 to 16.34. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between home ownership rates and property crime. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes rose from 78% in 2019 to 82% in 2022, property crime rates remained relatively stable, suggesting that increased home ownership might have a stabilizing effect on property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on current trajectories, larceny-theft is expected to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching around 95-100 incidents annually. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are projected to stabilize or decrease marginally, with burglaries possibly settling around 12-15 per year and motor vehicle thefts around 8-10 annually. Arson cases are expected to remain very low or non-existent.

In summary, DeWitt has experienced a complex property crime landscape over recent years. While burglary and motor vehicle theft have decreased, larceny-theft has seen a significant increase. The city's contribution to state property crime figures has generally increased, particularly in larceny-theft, despite population decline. The correlation between rising home ownership rates and stable crime rates, along with the inverse relationship between median income and property crime, suggests that economic factors play a role in the city's crime dynamics. Moving forward, targeted strategies to address larceny-theft while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories will be crucial for the city's overall safety and security.