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Property Crime Trends in Centerville, Iowa: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Centerville, Iowa, a small city with a rich history, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 41.58%, from 190 to 111 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a slight increase of 3.24%, growing from 6,133 to 6,332 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 43 burglaries, which peaked at 153 in 2017, representing a 255.81% increase. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 34, a 77.78% reduction from the 2017 peak. The burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 7.01 in 2010 to 25.21 in 2017, before falling to 5.37 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.34% in 2010 to 0.68% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they fell at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 133 cases, which decreased to 64 by 2022, a 51.88% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 21.69 in 2010 to 10.11 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts decreased slightly from 0.33% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022, suggesting that the local reduction in larceny-theft was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft has remained relatively stable over the years, with some fluctuations. There were 14 incidents in 2010, dropping to a low of 6 in 2019, but rising again to 13 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 2.28 in 2010 to 2.05 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.46% in 2010 to 0.39% in 2022, indicating that local trends were generally consistent with state patterns.
Arson cases in the city have shown considerable variability. From 7 incidents in 2010, arson cases peaked at 7 again in 2013, before dropping to 0 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.14 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 1.78% in 2010 to a high of 2.11% in 2013, before dropping to 0% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $34,146 in 2017 to $40,636 in 2021, property crimes decreased from 289 to 100 during the same period. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between property crime rates and population density, with both showing slight overall increases from 2010 to 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 30 incidents annually, larceny-theft might decrease to approximately 55 cases per year, and motor vehicle thefts could remain steady at about 12-14 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain very low, possibly fluctuating between 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Centerville has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's share of state property crimes has remained relatively stable, indicating that local crime trends generally align with broader state patterns. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests potential economic factors influencing crime reduction. These trends, if continued, could contribute to an improved quality of life and safety for Centerville residents in the coming years.
