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Property Crime Trends in Desloge, Missouri: A Decade of Change and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Desloge, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 260 in 2010 to 175 in 2022, representing a 32.7% reduction. During this same period, the population experienced modest growth, increasing from 5,758 in 2010 to 5,816 in 2022, a 1% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to 9 in 2022, marking a 64% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.34 in 2010 to 1.55 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but generally remained low, ranging from 0.06% to 0.16% of the state total. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, displayed more volatility. The number of incidents decreased from 231 in 2010 to 145 in 2022, a 37.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 40.12 to 24.93 over the same period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents ranged from 0.12% to 0.29%, indicating that while local rates decreased, they remained a consistent fraction of state totals. This trend suggests that while overall theft has decreased, it remains a persistent issue requiring ongoing attention.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed an increase over time, contrary to other property crime categories. In 2010, there were 4 incidents, which rose to 21 in 2022, a 425% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.69 to 3.61. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends. This significant rise in motor vehicle thefts may signal a need for targeted prevention strategies and increased vigilance among residents.
Arson incidents remained low throughout the period, with most years reporting either zero or one case. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.17. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated between 0% and 0.47%, with no clear trend. The low and sporadic nature of arson cases suggests it is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As population density increased from 1,973 per square mile in 2010 to 1,993 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This could indicate that increased community presence may deter certain types of property crimes. Additionally, the rise in median income from $42,327 in 2013 to $48,261 in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend in property crimes to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries and larceny-theft are likely to stabilize at lower levels, while motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, potentially increasing slightly before leveling off.
In summary, Desloge has experienced a general decrease in property crimes over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglaries and larceny-theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge for local law enforcement. The correlation between rising incomes, stable population density, and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth and community engagement could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to address motor vehicle thefts while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.
