Motor vehicle theft trends showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. From 63 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 20 in 2022, a 68.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.91 in 2010 to 0.83 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased significantly from 0.6% to 0.11%, suggesting a much more substantial improvement in this area compared to state trends.

Arson cases remained relatively low throughout the period, with slight fluctuations. The number of incidents increased from 2 in 2010 to 3 in 2022. However, when considering the population growth, the rate per 1,000 people remained nearly constant, moving from 0.09 in 2010 to 0.12 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.26% to 0.56%, indicating that arson rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,059 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,183 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose from $34,958 in 2013 to $50,291 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes, which may indicate that improved economic conditions contributed to reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, it is estimated that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease by another 15-20%, reaching approximately 350-370 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain relatively consistent.

In summary, Crossville has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates across most categories over the past decade, despite population growth. The most notable improvements were seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with increasing median income and population density, suggest that the city has been successful in enhancing public safety while managing urban growth. If these trends continue, Crossville is poised to maintain its trajectory of decreasing property crime rates in the coming years, potentially positioning itself as a model for small city crime reduction strategies.