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Violent Crime Trends in Jellico, Tennessee: A Study of Stability Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Jellico, located in Tennessee, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a low of 2 in 2020 to a high of 13 in 2014. Notably, the total number of violent crimes increased by 60% from 2010 to 2022, rising from 5 to 8 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 18.6%, from 4,524 in 2010 to 3,682 in 2022.
Analyzing murder trends, Jellico maintained a consistent record of zero murders throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population decline. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at zero, and the city consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murder cases.
Rape incidents in the city showed sporadic occurrences. There were no reported rapes in most years, with exceptions in 2010 (2 cases), 2013 (1 case), and 2014 (2 cases). The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.44 in 2010 and 2014. The city's contribution to the state's rape cases was highest in 2010 at 0.13% and 2014 at 0.10%, dropping to 0% in subsequent years.
Robbery trends in Jellico fluctuated over the years. The highest number of robberies (3) occurred in 2012 and 2016, while several years saw no robberies at all. The robbery rate per 1,000 people reached its maximum of 0.69 in 2012. The city's share of state robberies peaked at 0.06% in 2016 but fell to 0% by 2022.
Aggravated assault showed the most significant variability among violent crimes in the city. The number of cases ranged from 0 in 2016 to 9 in 2014. The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2014 at 1.96 and lowest in 2016 at 0. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases peaked at 0.04% in 2014, 2015, and 2017, dropping to 0.03% by 2022.
A strong correlation is observed between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 727 per square mile in 2010 to 592 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crime incidents, with some fluctuations. The racial composition of the city remained predominantly white throughout the period, with the percentage of white residents staying above 90%, showing a slight decrease from 94% in 2013 to 94% in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on historical data and current trends, we can anticipate a potential slight increase in overall violent crime incidents. This projection takes into account the historical fluctuations and the recent uptick in 2022. However, given the small number of incidents and population decline, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously.
In summary, Jellico has experienced a complex interplay of demographic changes and violent crime trends over the past decade. The most significant findings include the consistent absence of murders, sporadic occurrences of rape and robbery, and fluctuating aggravated assault rates. The correlation between decreasing population density and overall violent crime rates suggests that demographic shifts play a role in the city's crime dynamics. As Jellico continues to evolve, monitoring these trends will be crucial for understanding and addressing public safety concerns in this small Tennessee community.
