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Property Crime Trends in Crocker, Missouri: A Tale of Decline and Fluctuation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Crocker, a small municipality in Missouri spanning 1.24 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 52.17%, from 23 to 11 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 17.2%, from 3,342 to 2,767 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries, which peaked at 15 in 2014, before declining to 0 in 2022. This represents a 100% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.90 in 2010 to 5.02 in 2014, before falling to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.06% in 2014 and dropping to 0% by 2022. This trend suggests a significant improvement in burglary prevention or reporting within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a downward trend. From 20 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 30 in 2014, then decreased to 8 in 2022, marking a 60% reduction over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, rising from 5.98 in 2010 to 10.04 in 2014, then falling to 2.89 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.01% to 0.03%, indicating that the local trend generally mirrored state-wide changes.
Motor vehicle theft showed an interesting pattern. From 0 incidents in 2010, it increased to 4 in 2012, then fluctuated between 1 and 2 annually until a sharp rise to 10 in 2021, before settling at 3 in 2022. This represents a significant overall increase. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 0 in 2010 to 3.38 in 2021, then decreased to 1.08 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose dramatically from 0% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2021, before dropping to 0.01% in 2022, suggesting a temporary spike in this crime category.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic. There were no reported arsons in most years, with exceptions in 2012-2014 and 2016, peaking at 4 incidents in 2014. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at 1.34 in 2014. The city's proportion of state arsons was most significant in 2014 at 0.48%, indicating a brief period of heightened arson activity relative to the state.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,690 per square mile in 2010 to 2,227 in 2022, overall property crime incidents also declined. Additionally, the rise in median income from $43,750 in 2013 to $53,085 in 2022 coincided with a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between economic improvement and crime reduction.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Crocker may see a further reduction in overall property crimes, potentially reaching single digits annually. Burglaries are likely to remain very low or at zero, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 5-7 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts could fluctuate between 1-3 annually, and arson cases are expected to remain rare or non-existent.
In summary, Crocker has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes over the past decade, despite some fluctuations. The most significant improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has shown more variability. These trends, coupled with demographic changes such as decreasing population density and increasing median income, paint a picture of a city that has made strides in enhancing public safety and community well-being.
