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Violent Crime Trends in Lone Jack, Missouri: A Decade of Low Rates with Recent Assault Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lone Jack, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates, with notable changes occurring alongside population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from 0 to 7 incidents per year, while the population grew from 3,344 to 3,844 residents, representing a 15% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low throughout the observed period. Only one murder was reported in 2010, representing 0.3% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to approximately 0.30 murders per 1,000 residents. In subsequent years, no murders were reported, effectively maintaining a 0% murder rate per 1,000 people and 0% of the state's total murders. This consistent absence of murders since 2010 suggests a generally safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The only reported rape occurred in 2019, accounting for 0.05% of the state's total rapes that year. This single incident translates to approximately 0.25 rapes per 1,000 residents. The rarity of reported rapes indicates that sexual violence is not a prevalent issue in the community, though the sudden appearance of a case in 2019 warrants attention to prevent any potential increase in future years.
Robbery trends in the city show a consistently low rate, with no reported incidents throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of robberies translates to a 0 per 1,000 residents rate and 0% of the state's total robberies each year. The lack of robbery incidents suggests a community where property-related violent crimes are extremely rare, contributing to a sense of safety for residents and businesses.
Aggravated assault has shown the most variation among violent crimes in the city. No aggravated assaults were reported from 2010 to 2017. However, there was a sudden spike in 2018 with 7 incidents, accounting for 0.04% of the state's total. This spike translated to approximately 1.85 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents. In 2019, the number decreased to 4 incidents (0.03% of state total), or about 1 per 1,000 residents. After a brief absence of reported cases in 2021, 2022 saw 5 incidents, representing 0.03% of the state's total and approximately 1.30 per 1,000 residents. This fluctuation in aggravated assault rates suggests a need for targeted community interventions to address this specific type of violent crime.
When examining correlations, a notable relationship appears between the increase in population density and the occurrence of aggravated assaults. As the population density rose from 564 people per square mile in 2010 to 648 in 2022, the city experienced its first significant instances of aggravated assault. This correlation suggests that increased urbanization may be contributing to higher stress levels or social friction, potentially leading to more confrontations.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate that aggravated assault rates may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain within the range of 0-7 incidents per year, assuming population growth and density continue along current trajectories. Other violent crimes are expected to remain at or near zero, based on historical patterns.
In summary, Lone Jack has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with aggravated assault emerging as the primary concern in recent years. The city's growth and increasing density appear to have some correlation with this trend. As the community continues to develop, focusing on prevention strategies for aggravated assault while maintaining the low rates of other violent crimes will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of Lone Jack's residents.
