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Property Crime Trends in Cottonwood, Arizona: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cottonwood, located in Arizona, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 31.12%, from 376 to 259 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 5.60%, from 15,266 to 16,121 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a decreasing trend over time. In 2010, there were 51 burglaries, which dropped to 21 by 2022, representing a 58.82% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.34 in 2010 to 1.30 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, there's still room for improvement relative to state-wide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a downward trend. In 2010, there were 318 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 213 by 2022, a 33.02% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 20.83 in 2010 to 13.21 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state larceny-thefts decreased slightly from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was roughly in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft has shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 7 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 25 by 2022, a substantial 257.14% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.46 in 2010 to 1.55 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022, suggesting that this crime category has become a more significant issue for the city relative to state averages.
Arson incidents have fluctuated over the years but show an overall decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 3 arsons, which dropped to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.20 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 0.33% in 2010 to 0% in 2022, indicating significant improvement in this category relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and racial demographics. As the white population percentage increased from 65% in 2013 to 74% in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Concurrently, the Hispanic population decreased from 30% in 2013 to 20% in 2022. This correlation suggests potential socioeconomic factors at play, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trends, while arson incidents are likely to remain very low or non-existent.
In summary, Cottonwood has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary, larceny-theft, and arson. However, the rising trend in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The city's changing demographic composition appears to correlate with these crime trends, suggesting that broader socioeconomic factors may be influencing criminal activity. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies, especially for motor vehicle theft, will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.
