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Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Jefferson Park, Tucson
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Jefferson Park, a vibrant neighborhood in Tucson, Arizona, has experienced notable shifts in its real estate landscape over the past decade. This area has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, with a general trend towards more renters. Average home prices have shown consistent growth, while average rent prices have also increased, albeit with some variability.
The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in Jefferson Park reveals an interesting dynamic. In 2013, the neighborhood had a homeownership rate of 31%, with average home prices at $200,245. As average home prices steadily increased, reaching $272,478 by 2019, the homeownership rate decreased to 25%. This trend continued into 2022, with average home prices rising to $383,851 while the homeownership rate remained at 25%. This inverse relationship suggests that rising home prices may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a role in homeownership trends in Jefferson Park. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were exceptionally low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), the homeownership rate decreased from 31% to 24%. This counterintuitive trend might be attributed to other local factors outweighing the potential benefits of low interest rates. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, the homeownership rate stabilized around 22-27%, suggesting a complex interplay between interest rates and local market conditions.
Renter percentages and average rent prices in Jefferson Park have shown a generally positive correlation. In 2013, with 69% of residents renting, the average rent was $808. By 2018, as the renter percentage increased to 78%, average rent rose to $1,160. The peak in average rent was observed in 2019 at $1,310, coinciding with a slight decrease in renters to 75%. The population growth from 2,820 in 2013 to 3,658 in 2022 likely contributed to the increased demand for rentals and subsequent rise in prices.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in Jefferson Park continued to rise, reaching $385,978 in 2023 and $400,462 in 2024. This upward trajectory occurred despite the significant increase in federal interest rates, which stood at 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These figures indicate a robust local housing market that has maintained growth even in the face of higher borrowing costs.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, average home prices in Jefferson Park are expected to continue their upward trajectory, potentially reaching around $450,000 by 2029. Average rent prices, which have shown more volatility, are projected to stabilize and gradually increase, potentially reaching approximately $1,300-$1,400 per month in the same timeframe.
In summary, Jefferson Park has demonstrated a shift towards a renter-majority population, with homeownership rates decreasing as average home prices have steadily increased. The rental market has seen growth in both demand and prices, reflecting the neighborhood's increasing population. Despite rising interest rates, the housing market has remained strong, with continued growth in home values expected in the coming years.
