Motor vehicle theft in Collegedale has remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The number of incidents increased from 7 in 2010 to 9 in 2022, a 28.6% rise. However, due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.60 to 0.56. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, fluctuating between 0.04% and 0.14% over the years, ending at 0.05% in 2022.

Arson incidents in Collegedale have been infrequent and inconsistent. The data shows sporadic occurrences without a clear trend. The highest number of arsons reported was 3 in 2014, but most years saw either 0 or 1 incident. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated accordingly, reaching a peak of 0.41% in 2014 but remaining at 0% for several years, including 2022.

An analysis of correlations reveals a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income in Collegedale. As the median income increased from $64,988 in 2013 to $75,409 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 people decreased from 12.27 to 11.38. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between the decrease in owner-occupied housing (from 75% in 2013 to 55% in 2022) and the increase in certain types of property crimes, particularly larceny theft.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for Collegedale up to 2029, the overall property crime rate is expected to continue its slight downward trend, potentially reaching around 10.5 incidents per 1,000 people. Burglaries are likely to remain low, possibly stabilizing at around 3-5 incidents per year. Larceny theft may continue to be the predominant property crime, potentially increasing to around 190-200 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 8-12 incidents per year.

In conclusion, Collegedale has shown mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased, larceny thefts have increased, albeit at a slower rate than population growth. The city has maintained relatively low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing overall property crime rates suggests that economic improvements may be contributing to enhanced community safety. However, the decline in owner-occupied housing correlated with increases in certain property crimes warrants attention. As Collegedale continues to grow, maintaining focus on economic development and community engagement will be crucial in managing and potentially reducing property crime rates in the coming years.