Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. From 0 incidents in 2010, it increased to 3 in 2022, with a peak of 12 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was 0.51, up from 0 in 2010. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, with a notable spike to 0.10% in 2021. This indicates that while motor vehicle theft remains a minor issue, it has become more prevalent in recent years.

Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with only two reported cases in the dataset: one in 2012 and one in 2021. The arson rate per 1,000 people was 0.25 in 2012 and 0.18 in 2021. The city's contribution to state arson cases was 0.12% in 2012 and 0.17% in 2021, indicating that when arson does occur, it represents a significant portion of state totals due to the city's small size.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 4,144 per square mile in 2010 to 6,449 in 2022, total property crimes also generally increased. However, the relationship is not linear, as crime rates fluctuated year to year. Median income shows a moderate correlation with property crime trends, with both increasing over time. As median income rose from $50,593 in 2013 to $77,791 in 2022, property crimes also tended to increase, though not consistently.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we can expect a continuation of the recent downward trend in total property crimes. Extrapolating from the decrease observed from 2020 to 2022, we might anticipate approximately 70-75 property crimes annually by 2029, five years from now. This projection assumes that current demographic and economic trends continue and that no significant policy changes or external factors dramatically alter the city's crime landscape.

In summary, Berry Hill has experienced a complex evolution of property crime rates against a backdrop of rapid population growth. While raw numbers of certain crimes have increased, population-adjusted rates for some categories have improved. The city's contribution to state crime totals has generally increased, reflecting its growing importance within Tennessee's urban landscape. These trends underscore the need for continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies as the city continues to develop and change.