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Property Crime Trends in College Station: A Decade of Change Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
College Station, Texas, home to Texas A&M University, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city fluctuated, starting at 2,655 in 2010 and ending at 2,342 in 2022, representing an overall decrease of 11.8%. During this same period, the population grew from 94,246 to 124,326, a remarkable increase of 31.9%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 475 burglaries, which decreased to 251 by 2022, representing a 47.2% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.04 in 2010 to 2.02 in 2022, a 59.9% decrease. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.27% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed fluctuations but an overall decline. In 2010, there were 2,091 larceny thefts, which decreased to 1,905 by 2022, a 8.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 22.19 in 2010 to 15.32 in 2022, a 31% decrease. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.38% to 0.47% during this period, indicating that the city's larceny theft rate decreased more slowly than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 89 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 186 by 2022, a significant 109% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.94 in 2010 to 1.50 in 2022, a 59.6% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.16% to 0.23%, suggesting that this crime type grew faster in the city compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare and showed inconsistent reporting. Data was only available for a few years, with a peak of 2 cases reported in 2015, 2020, and 2021. Given the limited data, it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,842 per square mile in 2010 to 2,430 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased. This suggests that the growing urbanization of the city may have contributed to a reduction in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city could see a further decrease in burglaries to around 200 cases annually. Larceny theft is expected to stabilize at approximately 1,800 cases per year. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, potentially reaching 250 cases annually if current trends persist.
In summary, College Station has demonstrated resilience in the face of rapid population growth, with overall property crime rates decreasing despite the expanding population. The significant reduction in burglaries and the stabilization of larceny theft rates are positive indicators for the city's safety. However, the rising trend in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. These crime trends, when considered alongside the city's growing population and increasing urbanization, suggest a complex interplay between demographic changes and criminal activity that will continue to shape the city's safety landscape in the coming years.
