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Property Crime Trends in Coaling, Alabama: A Study of Decreasing Incidents Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Coaling, Alabama, a small city spanning 5.01 square miles, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside population fluctuations in recent years. From 2012 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased by 23.61%, from 72 to 55 incidents, while the population saw a slight decline of 6.96%, from 3,361 to 3,127 residents. This juxtaposition of declining crime rates against a backdrop of population decrease presents an intriguing scenario for analysis.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. The number of burglaries peaked in 2016 with 28 incidents, representing a 0.14% share of state burglaries. However, by 2018, this figure had decreased to 15 incidents, or 0.09% of state burglaries. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 5.95 in 2012 to a high of 8.70 in 2016, before settling at 4.80 in 2018. This volatility suggests localized factors influencing burglary rates, potentially including changes in local law enforcement strategies or community initiatives.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a general downward trend. In 2012, there were 43 incidents, which decreased to 33 by 2018, a 23.26% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 12.79 in 2012 to 10.55 in 2018. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny thefts remained stable at 0.05% throughout this period, indicating that the decrease in larceny thefts was consistent with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations over the years. From 9 incidents in 2012 (0.12% of state total), it decreased to a low of 2 incidents in 2015 (0.03% of state total), before rising again to 7 incidents in 2018 (0.09% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, from 2.68 in 2012 to 0.59 in 2015, and back up to 2.24 in 2018. This volatility could be indicative of changing patterns in organized crime or shifts in local economic conditions affecting vehicle ownership and security.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 670 per square mile in 2012 to 623 in 2018, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential link between population density and property crime incidence. Additionally, the median income showed a slight downward trend from $65,957 in 2013 to $59,700 in 2018, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes. This counterintuitive relationship may indicate that other factors, such as improved community policing or security measures, had a more significant impact on crime rates than economic conditions.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to continue their gradual decline, while motor vehicle thefts may show slight fluctuations but generally remain at lower levels compared to the early 2010s.
In conclusion, Coaling has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes from 2012 to 2018, despite fluctuations in specific categories. The most significant decreases were observed in larceny thefts and burglaries, while motor vehicle thefts showed more volatility. These trends, coupled with demographic changes such as decreasing population density and slight reductions in median income, paint a picture of a city that has potentially improved its approach to crime prevention and community safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will likely require continued focus on community-based policing strategies and adaptive responses to emerging crime patterns.
