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Property Crime Trends in Circleville, Ohio: Pumpkin City's Decade of Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Circleville, located in Ohio, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 996 to 401, representing a 59.7% reduction. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 18,584 to 19,140, an increase of 3%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 209 burglaries reported, which dropped to 56 in 2022, marking a 73.2% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 11.2 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.9 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.27% in 2010, peaking at 0.36% in 2020 and 2021, before declining to 0.26% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state totals has remained relatively stable in recent years.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant reduction. In 2010, there were 770 larceny thefts reported, which decreased to 330 in 2022, a 57.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 41.4 in 2010 to 17.2 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts declined from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2022, indicating that the city's larceny theft reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 17 reported cases, which increased to a peak of 59 in 2013 before declining to 15 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 0.9 in 2010 to 3.2 in 2013, settling at 0.8 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied significantly, from 0.1% in 2010 to a high of 0.5% in 2013, before dropping to 0.07% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has decreased overall, it has been subject to more variability than other property crimes.
Arson cases in the city have shown an inconsistent pattern. From 7 cases in 2010, the number dropped to zero in some years (2011, 2015, 2016) before rising to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.38 over this period. Notably, the city's share of state arsons increased dramatically from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.7% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue relative to state trends in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $46,707 in 2013 to $52,642 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 828 to 401. The racial composition of the city remained relatively stable during this period, with the white population consistently around 95%, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates may continue to decrease, albeit at a slower rate. Total property crimes could potentially drop to around 350 cases annually, with burglaries potentially decreasing to about 40 cases, larceny thefts to around 290 cases, and motor vehicle thefts stabilizing at approximately 20 cases per year. However, arson cases might see a slight increase, potentially reaching 8-10 cases annually if the recent upward trend continues.
In conclusion, Circleville has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. This trend, particularly in burglary and larceny theft, suggests improving safety and security in the community. However, the recent uptick in arson cases and the fluctuations in motor vehicle theft warrant continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to maintain and further improve the city's safety profile.
