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Property Crime Trends in Chillicothe, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Chillicothe, Missouri, a city with a rich history dating back to 1837, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 56.47%, from 232 to 101 incidents. During this same period, the city's population saw a slight decline of 3.18%, from 12,252 to 11,862 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 48 burglaries, which decreased to 27 in 2022, representing a 43.75% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.92 to 2.28 per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts to reduce burglaries have been effective, the city's progress outpaced the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decline. The number of incidents dropped from 175 in 2010 to 63 in 2022, a 64% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 14.28 to 5.31. However, the city's contribution to state larceny theft decreased from 0.15% to 0.08%, indicating that the reduction in this crime category was even more pronounced at the local level compared to the state.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility but ultimately decreased. In 2010, there were 9 incidents, which increased to a peak of 21 in 2021 before dropping to 11 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents changed from 0.73 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.07% in 2010, peaking at 0.12% in 2021, and ending at 0.05% in 2022. This suggests that while the city experienced a spike in this crime category, recent efforts have been effective in bringing the numbers down.
Arson incidents in the city have remained relatively low but variable. The number of arsons decreased from 6 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, with several years reporting zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.49 to 0.08. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.58% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, with peaks of 0.58% in 2010 and 0.39% in 2017.
A strong correlation was observed between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $41,662 in 2013 to $52,353 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further reduction in overall property crimes by approximately 30-35%, assuming current trends and interventions continue. This would potentially bring the total number of property crimes to around 65-70 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Chillicothe has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most notable improvements have been in larceny theft and burglary, while motor vehicle theft and arson have shown more variable patterns. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety in the coming years. These trends indicate a positive trajectory for the city's overall safety and quality of life, positioning Chillicothe as a community that has effectively addressed property crime challenges.
