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Property Crime Trends in Chenoa, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Chenoa, a city in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study of property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Chenoa fluctuated significantly, reaching a peak of 40 incidents in 2012 before dropping to a low of 3 in 2022, marking a substantial 90.32% decrease. This decline occurred alongside a population decrease from 2,053 in 2011 to 1,706 in 2022, representing a 16.9% reduction in the city's population.
Burglary rates in Chenoa have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2011, there were 6 burglaries, which increased to 13 in 2012 before steadily decreasing to just 1 incident in 2022. This represents an 83.33% decrease from 2011 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.92 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 0.59 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% throughout the period, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Chenoa, exhibited significant volatility. From 25 incidents in 2011, it peaked at 26 in 2012, then generally declined to just 1 incident in 2022, a 96% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 12.18 in 2011 to 0.59 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained low, consistently at 0.01% or less, suggesting that local trends did not significantly impact state-level statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in Chenoa has been relatively rare, with most years reporting either zero or one incident. The highest number recorded was 3 in 2020. Given the low numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents and percentage of state crimes for motor vehicle theft remained minimal, typically at or below 0.01% of state totals.
Arson cases were extremely infrequent in Chenoa, with only one incident reported in 2011 and no cases in subsequent years. This single case represented 0.11% of state arson incidents in 2011, a notably high percentage given the city's size, but the lack of incidents thereafter indicates this was an anomaly rather than a trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates in Chenoa. As median income increased from $52,735 in 2013 to $61,515 in 2022, overall property crime incidents generally decreased. Additionally, the rise in homeownership percentage from 72% in 2013 to 82% in 2022 coincided with the decline in property crimes, suggesting a possible link between increased property ownership and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is projected that by 2029, Chenoa could see its property crime rates stabilize at very low levels, potentially averaging 2-3 incidents per year. This forecast assumes continuation of current socioeconomic trends and maintained community policing efforts.
In summary, Chenoa has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2011 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. These improvements have occurred against a backdrop of declining population but rising median income and homeownership rates. The trends suggest that the city has become increasingly safe in terms of property crime, potentially enhancing its appeal as a residential community.
