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Property Crime Trends in Center Hill, Florida: A Decade of Growth and Fluctuation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Center Hill, located in Florida, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, the city has experienced fluctuations in both its crime rates and population. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes increased from 6 to 16, representing a 166.67% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 2,150 to 2,307.5, a 7.33% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries reported, which peaked at 6 in 2011, and then declined to 5 by 2020. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.40 in 2010 to 2.17 in 2020. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to the city remained low but grew from 0% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2020. This suggests that while burglaries increased relative to the city's population, they remained a small fraction of the state's total.
Larceny-theft incidents also fluctuated over the years. Starting with 3 cases in 2010, it reached a high of 8 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.40 in 2010 to 3.47 in 2020. Despite this local increase, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained at 0% throughout the period, indicating that these incidents, while increasing locally, did not significantly impact state-level figures.
Motor vehicle theft showed an inconsistent pattern. There were no reported cases in 2010, but this crime type peaked at 3 incidents in both 2018 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 people in 2020 was 1.30. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2020, suggesting a minimal impact on state-level statistics despite the local increase.
Arson cases were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2020. Consequently, there was no change in the rate per 1,000 people or the percentage of state arson cases attributable to the city.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 350 per square mile in 2010 to 376 per square mile in 2020, there was a corresponding rise in property crimes from 6 to 16. Additionally, the median income showed a strong positive correlation with property crime rates. As the median income rose from $36,925 in 2013 to $58,169.5 in 2020, property crimes also increased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, Center Hill may see a further increase in property crimes to approximately 22-25 incidents annually, assuming current trends continue and no significant interventions are implemented.
In summary, Center Hill has experienced a notable increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This trend correlates with population growth and rising median income. While the city's contribution to state-level crime statistics remains small, the local impact of these crimes is significant and warrants attention from city planners and law enforcement agencies to develop targeted strategies for crime prevention and community safety.
