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Property Crime Trends in Celina, Tennessee: A Decade of Decreasing Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Celina, located in Tennessee, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, peaking at 37 incidents in 2013 and declining to 14 in 2020, representing a 22.22% decrease overall. During this same period, the population grew from 2,403 in 2010 to 2,473.5 in 2020, an increase of 2.93%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which increased to 8 in 2011 and 2012, but then gradually decreased to 2 by 2020. This represents a 60% decrease in burglaries from 2010 to 2020. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.08 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.03% over the decade. This decline in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents showed more volatility. Starting at 13 cases in 2010, it reached a peak of 30 in 2013 before declining to 10 in 2020, a 23.08% decrease over the decade. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 5.41 in 2010 to a high of 10.10 in 2013, ending at 4.04 in 2020. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases ranged from 0.01% to 0.03%, indicating a consistently small share of the state's total. This trend suggests that while larceny-theft remains the most common property crime, its prevalence has decreased in recent years.
Motor vehicle theft showed an interesting pattern. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2012, but the number increased to 4 in 2016 and 2018 before settling at 2 in 2020. This represents an increase from 0 to 0.81 per 1,000 people over the decade. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% to 0.02%, indicating a slight increase in the city's contribution to state totals. While the absolute numbers remain low, this trend warrants attention from local law enforcement.
Arson cases were extremely rare in Celina. Only one case was reported in 2011, representing 0.14% of the state's total that year. In all other years, no arson cases were reported. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the city, but the isolated incident in 2011 may have prompted increased fire safety measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $21,018 in 2013 to $32,029 in 2020, total property crimes decreased from 37 to 14. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. However, population density and ownership percentages do not show strong correlations with property crime trends in this dataset.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 cases annually. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 15-20 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate between 1-3 cases annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain at or near zero.
In summary, Celina has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with larceny-theft remaining the most common offense. The reduction in burglaries and the overall decrease in property crimes, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest improving safety and economic conditions in the city. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants continued vigilance. These trends, if sustained, indicate a positive trajectory for Celina's public safety and quality of life in the coming years.
