Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low and stable. There were 4 incidents in 2010, dropping to 1 in 2022, a 75% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people declined from 1.41 in 2010 to 0.33 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.04% to 0.01% over this period, indicating a positive trend in vehicle security or theft prevention measures.

Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with most years reporting zero cases. However, there were notable exceptions in 2014 and 2020, with 1 and 2 incidents respectively. These isolated incidents resulted in temporary spikes in the city's share of state arsons, reaching 0.14% in 2014 and 0.32% in 2020. The infrequency of arson cases suggests it is not a persistent problem for the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $29,053 in 2013 to $47,000 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general decline, despite some fluctuations. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crimes. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the dominant form of property crime, potentially reaching around 120-130 incidents annually. Burglaries may continue their downward trend, possibly dropping to 5-6 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain low, averaging 1-2 incidents annually. Arson is expected to remain rare, with possibly one incident every few years.

In summary, Carthage has shown resilience in managing property crimes over the past decade. The significant decrease in burglaries and the stable, low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson are positive indicators for community safety. However, the rise in larceny-thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The correlation between rising median incomes and declining overall property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance community safety in the coming years.