Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an interesting pattern. From 5 incidents in 2010, it increased to 8 in 2022, a 60% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only slightly increased from 1.03 in 2010 to 1.47 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has been variable, ranging from 0% in some years to a high of 0.10% in 2020. This suggests that while the raw number of thefts has increased, the city's contribution to state totals remains relatively small.

Arson incidents in Decherd have been rare, with only two reported cases in 2010 and one in 2018. This makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. The rate per 1,000 residents for these years was 0.41 and 0.18 respectively. The city's share of state arson cases was notably high at 0.26% in 2010 and 0.20% in 2018, indicating that when arson does occur, it represents a significant portion of state incidents.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $32,760 in 2013 to $39,991 in 2018, property crime rates generally decreased. However, this correlation weakened in recent years as income fluctuated while crime rates continued to decline.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates over the next five years. By 2029, we project the total number of property crimes could fall to around 30-35 incidents per year, assuming current trends and interventions persist.

In summary, Decherd has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's share of state crime incidents has remained relatively low, with some fluctuations. The most notable trend is the consistent decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a rate per 1,000 residents. While motor vehicle thefts have seen a slight increase, the overall property crime landscape in Decherd appears to be improving, with projections suggesting this positive trend will continue in the coming years.