Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased slightly from 16 in 2010 to 33 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 people only marginally increased from 0.74 to 1.37. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.35% in 2018 before settling at 0.23% in 2022. This relative stability in motor vehicle thefts, despite population growth, suggests that while it remains a concern, it has not escalated significantly in proportion to the city's growth.

Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low, with numbers fluctuating between 0 and 4 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 people has consistently stayed below 0.2. The city's proportion of state arson cases has varied widely, from 0% in some years to a peak of 0.51% in 2016. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to discern a clear trend, but the overall impact of arson on the city's property crime statistics remains minimal.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a period of increasing median income, which rose from $81,344 in 2013 to $90,436 in 2022. This correlation suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 40% in 2013 to 48% in 2022, potentially indicating a more stable and invested community, which could contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we might expect to see burglary rates potentially dropping below 2 per 1,000 residents, larceny theft rates approaching 10 per 1,000, and motor vehicle theft rates stabilizing around 1.5 per 1,000. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously as various factors can influence crime rates.

In summary, Carrboro has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside population growth, rising median incomes, and increased home ownership rates. While motor vehicle thefts have seen a slight increase, they remain relatively low compared to other property crimes. These trends suggest an improving safety profile for the city, potentially driven by a combination of economic growth, community engagement, and effective law enforcement strategies.