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Violent Crime Trends in Morganton: Assaults Rise as Population Declines
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Morganton, a city in North Carolina, has witnessed significant changes in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. Despite a slight population decrease of 1.9%, the total number of violent crimes increased by 80%, rising from 40 to 72 incidents. This stark contrast between population trend and crime rate highlights a growing concern for the community.
The city's murder rate has shown considerable variability over the years. While there were no reported murders in 2010 and 2011, Morganton experienced a spike in 2014 with 3 murders, accounting for 0.96% of the state's total and a rate of 0.11 murders per 1,000 people. By 2022, the murder rate had returned to zero, suggesting that while homicide is not a persistent issue, isolated incidents can dramatically impact the city's crime statistics due to its relatively small population.
Rape incidents in Morganton have shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 4 reported rapes (0.14 per 1,000 people), representing 0.35% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had more than doubled to 9 incidents (0.33 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.47% of the state's total. This increase outpaces population change, indicating a growing concern for the community's safety.
Robbery trends in Morganton have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 11 robberies (0.39 per 1,000 people), representing 0.15% of the state's total. This number peaked in 2013 with 21 incidents (0.76 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.31% of the state's total. By 2022, robberies had decreased to 5 incidents (0.18 per 1,000 people), representing 0.1% of the state's total. This overall decrease, despite population decline, suggests improving conditions regarding robbery.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes in Morganton. In 2010, there were 25 incidents (0.9 per 1,000 people), representing 0.19% of the state's total. By 2022, this had more than doubled to 58 incidents (2.12 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.24% of the state's total. This substantial increase, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, indicates a growing problem with aggravated assaults in the city.
An examination of demographic changes reveals a potential correlation with the increase in violent crime. From 2013 to 2022, Morganton's white population decreased from 73% to 70%, while the Black population increased from 9% to 11%, and the Hispanic population grew from 11% to 13%. This demographic shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults.
Based on these trends, predictive models project that by 2029, Morganton may experience a continued low or zero murder rate, approximately 12-14 rape incidents annually, a slight increase to 6-7 robberies per year, and a further increase in aggravated assaults to around 70-75 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Morganton has experienced a significant increase in violent crime, primarily driven by a rise in aggravated assaults and rape incidents. While robberies have decreased and murders remain rare, the overall trend suggests a growing challenge in maintaining public safety. These changes coincide with demographic shifts, indicating a need for targeted community interventions and law enforcement strategies to address the rising violent crime rates.
