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Property Crime Trends in Butler, Alabama: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Butler, Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 22.45%, from 49 to 38 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 5.89%, from 3,785 to 4,008 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to 9 in 2022, representing a 64% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 6.61 to 2.25 burglaries per 1,000 residents. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries actually decreased slightly from 0.11% to 0.08%. This suggests that while the local burglary situation has improved, the city's relative contribution to state burglaries has remained relatively stable.
Larceny-theft incidents fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. In 2010, there were 21 cases, rising to 23 in 2022, a 9.52% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 5.55 to 5.74. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.03% to 0.05%, indicating a growing contribution to the state's total despite the relatively stable local rate.
Motor vehicle theft in the city doubled from 3 incidents in 2010 to 6 in 2022. This translates to an increase from 0.79 to 1.50 thefts per 1,000 residents. More notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose significantly from 0.05% to 0.09%, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported incident in 2011, representing 0.18% of state arsons that year. No other arson data is available for the analyzed period, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends.
Examining correlations reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in burglaries coincides with an increase in median income, which rose from $34,660 in 2013 to $39,154 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced burglary rates. Additionally, the increase in home ownership rates from 70% in 2013 to 78% in 2022 correlates with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher ownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglaries are projected to further decrease, possibly reaching single digits annually. Larceny-theft is expected to remain relatively stable or show a slight increase, while motor vehicle thefts may continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 8-10 incidents annually by 2029.
In summary, Butler has experienced a nuanced shift in its property crime landscape. The significant reduction in burglaries, coupled with increases in median income and home ownership, paints a picture of improving community stability. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state property crimes in certain categories highlight areas that may require focused attention in the coming years. These trends, set against the backdrop of modest population growth, suggest a complex interplay between demographic changes and crime patterns in this small Alabama town.
