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Property Crime Trends in Jacksonville, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jacksonville, Alabama, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, coupled with modest population growth. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 44.3%, from 467 to 260 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 9.3%, from 15,159 to 16,567 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2011, there were 154 burglaries reported, which decreased to 58 incidents in 2022, representing a 62.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.16 per 1,000 people in 2011 to 3.50 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this significant decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.42% in 2011 to 0.51% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the reduction rate may be slower compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also exhibited a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 301 in 2011 to 196 in 2022, a 34.9% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 19.86 in 2011 to 11.83 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 0.34% to 0.42% over this period, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility but ultimately decreased. From 12 incidents in 2011, it peaked at 27 in 2017 before decreasing to 6 in 2022, resulting in a 50% overall reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.79 in 2011 to 0.36 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.14% to 0.09%, suggesting a more significant improvement in this category compared to the state average.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years of available information. In 2011, there were 5 arson cases, representing 0.9% of state arsons. By 2022, this number had decreased to 1 incident, accounting for 0.19% of state arsons. This represents an 80% decrease in arson cases, with the rate per 1,000 residents dropping from 0.33 to 0.06.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $34,468 in 2013 to $43,794 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in property crime rates. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime incidence. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership rates from 51% in 2013 to 53% in 2022 coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher rates of property ownership may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to approximately 200 incidents per year, representing a further 23% reduction from 2022 levels.
In summary, Jacksonville has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing population growth. The most substantial improvements were seen in burglary and arson rates, while larceny-theft remains the most prevalent property crime. These positive trends, coupled with increasing median income and stable homeownership rates, suggest an improving quality of life for residents. However, the city's relative share of state property crimes in some categories has increased, indicating that continued focus on crime prevention strategies may be necessary to maintain and further improve upon these gains in the coming years.
