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Property Crime Trends in Burnsville: A Dramatic Decline Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Burnsville, a town in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over recent years. From 2011 to 2017, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 59.38%, from 96 to 39 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 15.04%, from 6,178 in 2011 to 6,392 in 2022, indicating a notable improvement in public safety relative to the town's expanding population.
Burglary rates in the city showed a marked decline over the observed period. In 2011, there were 21 burglaries, which decreased to just 3 in 2017, representing an 85.71% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.40 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 0.53 per 1,000 in 2017. The city's share of state burglaries also diminished, dropping from 0.04% in 2011 to 0.01% in 2017. This significant decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a substantial decrease. In 2011, there were 71 reported cases, which fell to 33 in 2017, a 53.52% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 11.49 in 2011 to 5.82 in 2017. Despite this decline, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.05% to 0.03%. This trend indicates that while local efforts to reduce theft have been successful, the city's improvement was somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed a slight decrease, from 4 incidents in 2011 to 3 in 2017, a 25% reduction. However, due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased more significantly, from 0.65 in 2011 to 0.53 in 2017. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained constant at 0.04%, suggesting that the reduction in this crime category was consistent with state-wide trends.
Arson data for the city shows zero incidents reported for all years with available data (2011, 2012, 2014, and 2017). This consistent absence of arson cases indicates that it is not a significant concern for the community, and the city's share of state arson cases remains at 0%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $34,598 in 2013 to $44,236 in 2022, property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there's a positive correlation between homeownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 62% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city could see a further reduction in property crimes. Burglaries might decrease to near-zero levels, larceny-theft could potentially drop below 20 incidents per year, and motor vehicle thefts might become rare occurrences, possibly averaging 1-2 cases annually.
The most significant discovery is the substantial overall reduction in property crimes in Burnsville, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes and increased homeownership, suggests a positive trajectory for public safety and community stability. If these trends continue, Burnsville may become one of the safest small towns in North Carolina, potentially attracting new residents and businesses, and fostering a stronger sense of community among its inhabitants.
