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Property Crime Trends in Buhl, Idaho: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Buhl, Idaho, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small city decreased significantly, dropping from 95 to 31 incidents, representing a 67.4% reduction. This decline in property crime occurred alongside a population growth of 11.8%, with the number of residents increasing from 6,818 in 2010 to 7,623 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 24 reported burglaries, which dropped to just 4 in 2022, marking an 83.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.52 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.52 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also declined, from 0.56% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts dropped from 70 in 2010 to 26 in 2022, a 62.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.27 in 2010 to 3.41 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased slightly from 0.38% to 0.26% over the same period. This trend indicates a general improvement in property security and potentially reduced opportunities for theft within the community.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but remained relatively low. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 9 in 2017 before dropping back to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 0.11% to 0.08% over the 12-year period. These figures suggest that while motor vehicle theft is not a major concern, it remains a persistent issue requiring ongoing attention.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with no clear trend. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 5 per year, with 1 case reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.73 in 2010 and 0.13 in 2022. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, the city's contribution to state arson figures has been disproportionately high, ranging from 0.55% to 2.84% over the years, settling at 0.98% in 2022. This suggests that while arson is infrequent, it occurs at a higher rate relative to the city's population size compared to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and home ownership percentages. As the percent of owner-occupied homes increased from 72% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 68 to 31. This could indicate that higher rates of home ownership contribute to greater community investment and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, if current patterns continue, we can expect to see further reductions in overall property crime rates by 2029. Burglary rates are projected to potentially decrease to less than 0.5 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 3 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low but persistent, possibly fluctuating between 0.1 and 0.3 per 1,000 residents. Arson cases are expected to remain sporadic but could continue to represent a disproportionate share of state figures.
In summary, Buhl has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside population growth and increased home ownership, suggesting a strengthening community fabric. While some crime types like motor vehicle theft and arson persist at low levels, the general trajectory points towards a safer urban environment. These trends, if maintained, position Buhl as an increasingly secure and stable community within Idaho.
