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Property Crime Trends in Fruitland, Idaho: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fruitland, Idaho, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, with an overall decrease of 54.3% from 105 incidents in 2010 to 48 in 2022. This decline in property crime occurred against a backdrop of substantial population growth, with the city's population increasing by 30.7% from 6,305 in 2010 to 8,238 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 27 burglaries reported, which decreased to 19 incidents by 2022, representing a 29.6% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.28 in 2010 to 2.31 in 2022, a significant 46% decrease. Interestingly, despite this local decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.62% in 2010 to 0.92% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have fallen more rapidly in other parts of Idaho during this period.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a substantial decrease. The number of incidents dropped from 73 in 2010 to 24 in 2022, a 67.1% reduction. When accounting for population growth, the rate of larceny theft per 1,000 residents decreased even more dramatically, from 11.58 in 2010 to 2.91 in 2022, a 74.9% decline. The city's contribution to statewide larceny theft incidents decreased from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents remained relatively low but fluctuated, with 5 cases in 2010, dropping to 1 in 2014 and 2017, before rising to 5 again in 2022. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.79 in 2010 to 0.61 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.57% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime may have increased more rapidly elsewhere in the state.
Arson incidents in the city have been rare, with only a few cases reported between 2010 and 2022. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in both 2012 and 2013, with no incidents reported in most other years. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to discern a clear trend or make meaningful comparisons to state percentages for this crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 2,626 per square mile in 2010 to 3,431 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be a weak negative correlation between median income and property crime rates, with income rising from $51,637 in 2013 to $59,692 in 2022 as crime rates generally fell. However, the relationship is not strong enough to suggest a direct causal link.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll present as five years from now), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to approximately 35-40 incidents per year, assuming population growth continues at a similar rate.
In summary, Fruitland has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft, despite substantial population growth. This trend suggests effective local crime prevention strategies or changing socioeconomic factors. The city's share of state crime statistics has fluctuated, indicating that local trends don't always mirror statewide patterns. As the community continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will likely require ongoing attention to crime prevention and community engagement strategies.
