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Property Crime Trends in Brookport, Illinois: A Unique Case of Declining Burglaries and Zero Motor Vehicle Thefts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brookport, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2017 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased from 18 to 11, marking a significant 38.89% reduction. This decline occurred against the backdrop of a population decrease from 2,137 in 2017 to 1,839 in 2022, representing a 13.94% decrease over five years.
The burglary rate in the city showed a notable decline. In 2017, there were 8 burglaries reported, which decreased to 2 in 2018, representing a 75% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.74 per 1,000 residents in 2017 to 0.92 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's contribution to the state's total burglaries also decreased from 0.02% to 0.01% during this period. This significant drop in burglaries suggests an improvement in home security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness in deterring such crimes.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city showed a slight decrease from 10 cases in 2017 to 9 in 2018, a 10% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents changed from 4.68 in 2017 to 4.13 in 2018. The city's share of the state's larceny-theft cases remained constant at 0.01% for both years. This relatively stable trend in larceny-theft, despite the population decrease, indicates that petty theft remains a persistent issue in the community.
Interestingly, the city reported no motor vehicle thefts in both 2017 and 2018. This absence of motor vehicle theft cases is notable and could be attributed to effective anti-theft measures or the nature of the city's layout and demographics.
Arson cases saw an increase from 0 incidents in 2017 to 1 in 2018. This change resulted in an arson rate of 0.46 per 1,000 residents in 2018. More significantly, the city's contribution to the state's total arson cases jumped from 0% to 0.09%, a substantial increase for a small city. This spike in arson, though based on a single incident, warrants attention from local authorities due to its potential severity.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $36,539 in 2017 to $47,890 in 2022, a 31.07% rise. Concurrently, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, moving from 84% in 2017 to 84% in 2022. The stability in home ownership, coupled with rising incomes, may have contributed to the overall decrease in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the observed trends, burglaries are expected to remain low, possibly stabilizing at 1-2 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is projected to show a slight downward trend, potentially reaching 7-8 cases annually by 2029. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain at or near zero, given the historical absence of such incidents. However, arson cases warrant careful monitoring due to their unpredictable nature and the significant impact of even a single incident in a small community.
In conclusion, Brookport has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction from 2017 to 2018, with notable decreases in burglaries and a stable low rate of larceny-theft. The absence of motor vehicle thefts and the anomalous increase in arson cases highlight the unique crime profile of this small Illinois city. As the community continues to experience population changes and economic growth, maintaining vigilance and adapting crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime rates.
