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Warrenville's Decade of Violent Crime Trends: Aggravated Assaults on the Rise
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Warrenville, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with a notable overall decrease from 14 incidents in 2010 to 12 in 2020, representing a 14.3% reduction. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 20,202 in 2010 to 20,923 in 2020, an increase of 3.6%.
The murder rate in Warrenville has remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2020, an exceptional statistic that speaks to the city's safety in terms of homicides. This steady absence of murders, despite the slight population growth, indicates a rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the decade. The percentage of state murders attributable to Warrenville has consequently remained at 0% during this period, highlighting the city's positive standing in this aspect of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have shown more variability. In 2010, there were 7 reported rapes, which declined to 2 in 2020, a 71.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.35 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2020. The percentage of state rapes attributed to Warrenville fluctuated, peaking at 0.41% in 2010 and falling to 0.06% by 2020. This significant decrease suggests improved safety for residents in this category of violent crime.
Robbery trends in Warrenville have been inconsistent. From 4 incidents in 2010, robberies decreased to 3 in 2020, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people declined slightly from 0.20 in 2010 to 0.14 in 2020. The city's contribution to state robberies increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2020, indicating a slight rise in the city's share of this crime type relative to the state, despite the overall decrease in incidents.
Aggravated assault cases in the city increased from 3 in 2010 to 7 in 2020, a substantial 133.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.33 in 2020. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults rose from 0.01% to 0.03% over this period, suggesting a growing concern in this area of violent crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a modest relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,698 per square mile in 2010 to 3,830 in 2020, violent crimes per capita showed some fluctuation but generally remained low. The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 71% in 2013 to 69% in 2020, while the Hispanic population increased from 15% to 16% during the same period. These demographic shifts do not seem to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Warrenville may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes, potentially reaching 15-18 incidents annually. This forecast suggests a possible reversal of the decreasing trend observed in the earlier part of the decade, primarily driven by the upward trend in aggravated assaults.
In summary, Warrenville has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with notable improvements in rape and robbery incidents. The consistent absence of murders is particularly commendable. However, the rise in aggravated assaults presents a challenge that may require focused attention from local law enforcement and community initiatives. Despite these fluctuations, Warrenville remains a comparatively safe community within Illinois, with violent crime rates well below those of many larger urban areas in the state.
