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Property Crime Trends in Brevard: Mountain City Sees Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brevard, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 46.86%, from 207 to 110 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 5.37%, from 13,682 to 14,417 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 52 burglaries, which decreased to 18 by 2022, representing a 65.38% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.80 to 1.25 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.1% in 2010, peaking at 0.14% in 2013, and settling at 0.07% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a decline. In 2010, there were 149 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 88 by 2022, a 40.94% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 10.89 to 6.10. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.11% to 0.18% over the years, settling at 0.07% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing larceny-theft, the decline is somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 6 incidents, which decreased to 4 by 2022, a 33.33% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell slightly from 0.44 to 0.28. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0.03% and 0.12%, ending at 0.03% in 2022. These figures indicate that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city, especially when compared to other property crimes.
Arson incidents in the city have been infrequent but showed some variation. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 3 per year, with no clear trend. The rate per 1,000 residents remained below 0.21 throughout the period. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 0% to 0.34%, ending at 0.11% in 2022. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $38,334 in 2013 to $55,775 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased from 283 to 110. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing general decreases over time.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further reduction in property crimes. Burglaries may decrease to around 10-12 incidents per year, larceny-theft could drop to approximately 70-75 cases, and motor vehicle thefts might stabilize at 3-4 incidents annually. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic, with 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Brevard has demonstrated a commendable reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and increasing median income, suggests an improving quality of life for residents. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while growing indicates effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. As the city continues to develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for sustaining a safe and thriving community.
