Robbery trends in the city show some fluctuation but remain relatively low. The number of robberies peaked at 7 in 2015 (0.12% of the state total) and decreased to 2 in 2022 (0.04% of the state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.62 in 2011 to 0.35 in 2022. This indicates that while the absolute number of robberies has decreased, the rate relative to the population has remained somewhat stable.

Aggravated assault has shown the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. The number of incidents rose from 6 in 2011 (0.05% of the state total) to a peak of 17 in 2012 (0.11% of the state total), before declining to 12 in 2022 (0.05% of the state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.92 in 2011 to 2.12 in 2022, indicating a growing issue relative to the shrinking population.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population density and changes in violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,035 per square mile in 2011 to 1,768 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate per capita increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 67% in 2015 to 56% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 8% to 17% during the same period, there were fluctuations in violent crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can expect the following: The overall number of violent crimes may continue to fluctuate but is likely to remain within the range of 15-20 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults are projected to remain the most common violent crime, potentially averaging 10-15 cases annually. Robbery rates may stabilize around 2-4 incidents per year. Rape incidents are expected to remain low but variable, potentially ranging from 0-3 cases annually. Murder rates are likely to remain very low, with 0-1 incidents in most years.

In summary, Wallace has experienced a complex interplay between declining population and fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. While the absolute number of violent crimes has remained relatively low, the per capita rates have increased for some categories due to the shrinking population. Aggravated assault emerges as the most significant concern, showing both the highest numbers and the most substantial increase relative to population. The city's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to correlate with these crime trends, suggesting a need for targeted community-based interventions and law enforcement strategies to address the evolving nature of violent crime in Wallace.