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Property Crime Trends in Branson, Missouri: Tourist Destination's Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Branson, located in Missouri, is a popular tourist destination known for its entertainment venues and outdoor attractions. Over the past decade, the city has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 23.4%, from 1,062 to 813. During this same period, the population grew by 24.8%, from 14,906 to 18,603 residents, creating an interesting dynamic between crime rates and population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 142 burglaries, which decreased to 53 in 2022, representing a 62.7% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 9.53 to 2.85, a 70.1% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.44% in 2010, peaking at 0.9% in 2015, and settling at 0.4% in 2022. This trend suggests that burglary prevention efforts in the city may have been more effective than the state average, particularly in recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 897 in 2010 to 698 in 2022, a 22.2% reduction. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents fell more significantly, from 60.18 to 37.52, a 37.7% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases increased slightly from 0.79% in 2010 to 0.9% in 2022, indicating that while local efforts have been effective, they may not have outpaced state-wide improvements.
Motor vehicle theft presented a more complex pattern. The number of incidents increased from 23 in 2010 to 62 in 2022, a substantial 169.6% rise. Even when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.54 to 3.33, a 116% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.17% to 0.26% during this period. This trend suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern for the city, potentially requiring targeted prevention strategies.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. The number of incidents increased from 0 in 2010 to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 to 0.16. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0% to 0.49%. While the absolute numbers are small, the increasing trend warrants attention to prevent further escalation.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 698 per square mile in 2010 to 871 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $45,392 in 2013 to $52,680 in 2022, coinciding with the general downward trend in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may have contributed to crime reduction.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trend, albeit at a slower pace. Motor vehicle theft rates may plateau or show a slight increase if current trends persist. Arson cases are projected to remain low but could see minor fluctuations.
In conclusion, Branson has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime despite significant population growth. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates are particularly noteworthy. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require focused attention. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining and adapting crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustaining the overall positive trends in property crime reduction.
