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Property Crime Trends in Riverside, Missouri: A Tale of Growth and Shifting Crime Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Riverside, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 217 in 2010 and ending at 236 in 2022, representing an 8.76% increase. During this same period, the population grew significantly from 3,533 in 2010 to 5,099 in 2022, a 44.32% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 19 burglaries, which decreased to just 3 in 2022, representing an 84.21% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate dropped from 5.38 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.59 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also fluctuated, peaking at 0.19% in 2021 before dramatically falling to 0.02% in 2022. This substantial decrease suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed more variability. In 2010, there were 176 incidents, which increased to 191 in 2022, an 8.52% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate actually decreased from 49.82 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 37.46 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft increased from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.25% in 2022, indicating that while local rates improved relative to population, they worsened compared to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft presented a concerning upward trend. Incidents rose from 22 in 2010 to 42 in 2022, a 90.91% increase. The rate per 1,000 people also increased from 6.23 in 2010 to 8.24 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated but overall increased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.25% in 2021, before slightly decreasing to 0.17% in 2022. This trend suggests a growing challenge with vehicle security in the area.
Arson cases remained relatively low throughout the period, with no more than two incidents reported in any given year. The rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state arsons remained minimal, never exceeding 0.53 per 1,000 people or 0.26% of state cases. This indicates that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between increasing population density and rising motor vehicle thefts. As density grew from 639 people per square mile in 2010 to 922 in 2022, motor vehicle thefts also increased. Additionally, the rise in median income from $54,185 in 2013 to $70,791 in 2022 coincided with an overall increase in property crimes, particularly larceny theft and motor vehicle theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes, primarily driven by rising larceny theft and motor vehicle theft rates. Burglary rates are expected to remain low or potentially decrease further. The total number of property crimes could reach approximately 280-300 annually by 2029 if current trends persist.
In summary, Riverside has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns over the past decade. While burglary rates have significantly improved, the community faces growing challenges with larceny theft and motor vehicle theft. These trends, coupled with rapid population growth and increasing median income, suggest a changing urban landscape that may require targeted law enforcement strategies and community initiatives to address emerging property crime issues effectively.
