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Property Crime Trends in Brandenburg, Kentucky: A Decade of Change and Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brandenburg, located in Kentucky, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 32.56%, from 43 to 29 incidents. During the same period, the population increased by 5.2%, from 5,232 to 5,504 residents. This analysis will delve into the specific trends of various property crime categories and their implications for the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 15 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 4 in 2022, representing a 73.33% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 2.87 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.73 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.08% in 2010, dropping to as low as 0.02% in 2013 and 2014, and then rising slightly to 0.08% in 2022. This overall decline in burglaries suggests improved security measures or increased community vigilance.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over the observed period. In 2010, there were 27 reported cases, which reduced to 14 in 2022, marking a 48.15% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.16 in 2010 to 2.54 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.06% throughout the period. This consistent low percentage indicates that the city maintains a smaller share of the state's larceny-theft incidents relative to its population.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. From 1 incident in 2010, the number increased to 11 in 2022, a significant 1000% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.19 in 2010 to 2.00 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022. This sharp rise suggests a growing concern that may require targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson cases in the city were rare, with only one reported incident in 2018, accounting for 0.59% of state arsons that year. In all other years, no arsons were reported, indicating that this crime is not a significant issue for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,277 per square mile in 2010 to 1,343 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization may have led to improved security measures or community awareness.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a slight increase in overall property crimes to approximately 35 incidents annually. This projection is based on the recent uptick observed in motor vehicle thefts and assumes current trends continue.
In summary, Brandenburg has experienced a general decline in most property crime categories over the past decade, with the notable exception of motor vehicle thefts. The reduction in burglaries and larceny-thefts, coupled with population growth, suggests improving safety conditions. However, the significant increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants attention from local law enforcement. As the city continues to grow, maintaining and enhancing crime prevention strategies will be crucial to ensure the safety and security of its residents.
