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Property Crime Trends in Mayfield, Kentucky: A Decade of Progress and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mayfield, Kentucky, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced significant fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable overall decrease of 17.9% from 280 incidents in 2010 to 230 in 2022. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's residents increasing by 5.9% from 13,380 in 2010 to 14,176 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city show a general decline over the years, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 101 burglaries, which decreased to 66 in 2022, representing a 34.7% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 7.55 in 2010 to 4.66 in 2022, a more substantial 38.3% decrease. Interestingly, despite this local decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.51% in 2010 to 1.34% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have fallen more rapidly in other parts of Kentucky.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a similar downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 169 in 2010 to 151 in 2022, a 10.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 people fell from 12.63 to 10.65, a 15.7% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny theft increased from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.59% in 2022, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny theft was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more complex pattern. The number of incidents increased from 10 in 2010 to 13 in 2022, a 30% rise. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people only increased slightly from 0.75 to 0.92, a 22.7% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.23% to 0.31% over this period, suggesting that this type of crime increased more rapidly in the city compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare and showed no clear trend. The number of incidents fluctuated between 0 and 2 per year, with no reported cases in several years including 2022. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends or their relationship to population changes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $32,269 in 2013 to $41,292 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in overall property crime rates. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime.
Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,820 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,928 in 2022, there were fluctuations in property crime rates that loosely followed this trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from the current year 2024) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are projected to decrease further, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously as unforeseen factors could influence crime rates.
In conclusion, Mayfield has shown resilience in managing property crime over the past decade. The overall downward trend in property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny theft, is encouraging and suggests effective law enforcement strategies and improving socioeconomic conditions. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state crime in some categories indicate areas that may require continued attention. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustaining and improving upon these positive trends.
