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Property Crime Trends in Braidwood, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Braidwood, Illinois presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 121 to 39, representing a 67.8% reduction. This decline occurred while the population grew modestly from 5,436 to 5,538, a 1.9% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 17 burglaries, which decreased to 8 in 2022, a 52.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.13 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.44 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting a more significant statewide reduction in burglaries.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased substantially over the same period. In 2010, there were 101 larceny-thefts, which dropped to 26 in 2022, a 74.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 18.58 in 2010 to 4.69 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.06% to 0.03%, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the statewide trend.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed some fluctuation but ultimately increased. From 3 incidents in 2010 to 5 in 2022, there was a 66.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.55 in 2010 to 0.90 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.02%, suggesting that this trend may be part of a broader regional pattern.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with no clear trend. There were no reported arsons in 2010 and 2022, but the city saw peaks of 5 cases in 2011 and 3 in 2014. Due to the low numbers, the percentage of state arsons fluctuated significantly, reaching as high as 0.55% in 2011 before returning to 0% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $65,612 in 2013 to $71,870 in 2022, property crimes decreased from 69 to 39 during the same period. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the slight increase in racial diversity and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 96% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we can expect the downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trends, we might anticipate total property crimes to stabilize around 30-35 annually by 2029, with burglaries potentially decreasing to 5-6 per year, larceny-thefts to around 20-25, and motor vehicle thefts remaining stable at 4-5 annually.
In summary, Braidwood has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside modest population growth, increasing median income, and slight changes in racial composition. The city's share of state crime has remained relatively low, indicating that these improvements are part of a local success story in crime reduction.
