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Property Crime Trends in Bourbon, Missouri: A Decade of Resilience
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bourbon, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable increase from 21 incidents in 2011 to 16 in 2022, representing a 23.8% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 2,786 in 2011 to 2,794 in 2022, a modest 0.3% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2011, there were 3 burglaries, which peaked at 13 in 2018, before declining to 1 in 2022. This represents a 66.7% decrease from 2011 to 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 1.08 in 2011 to 0.36 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.07% over the period, with the highest percentage in 2018. This suggests that while burglary has decreased overall, it has had periodic spikes that warrant attention.
Larceny-theft, the most prevalent property crime in the city, saw an overall decrease from 17 incidents in 2011 to 14 in 2022, a 17.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.10 to 5.01 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.05%. The highest number of larceny-thefts was recorded in 2017 with 53 incidents, indicating a period of heightened concern that has since improved.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, with slight fluctuations. From 1 incident in 2011, it peaked at 6 in 2017, before returning to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained mostly unchanged, from 0.36 in 2011 to 0.36 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0.01% to 0.04%, peaking in 2017. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft is not a major concern, periodic spikes do occur.
Arson incidents have been sporadic in the city. There was 1 reported case in 2011 and 2017, representing 0.11% and 0.13% of state arsons respectively. In other years, no arsons were reported. The rate per 1,000 people for arson was 0.36 in both 2011 and 2017, the only years with recorded incidents. This indicates that arson is not a persistent problem but occurs infrequently.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $36,656 in 2013 to $48,316 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between homeownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 63% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary is expected to remain low, potentially averaging 2-3 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 15-20 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain sporadic, with 1-2 incidents annually. Arson is expected to remain rare, with possibly one incident every few years.
In summary, Bourbon has shown resilience in managing property crime over the past decade. The overall downward trend in property crimes, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with increasing median income and homeownership rates, suggests improving community stability. However, the periodic spikes in certain crime categories highlight the need for continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining this positive trajectory will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
