Motor vehicle theft in Raymore showed a concerning upward trend, with incidents rising from 14 in 2010 to 40 in 2022, a substantial 185.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents also increased significantly by 128.2%, from 0.71 to 1.62. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.11% to 0.17%, indicating that this crime is becoming a more pressing issue locally compared to statewide trends.

Arson cases in Raymore have been relatively rare and inconsistent, with 2 reported cases in 2010 and none in 2022. The highest number of arson cases was 6 in 2011. Due to the low numbers, calculating meaningful trends or rates for arson is challenging and may not provide reliable insights.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. Raymore's population density increased from 1,145 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,428 in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes. This suggests that as the area became more densely populated, it may have created more opportunities for certain types of property crimes.

The median income in Raymore rose from $82,417 in 2013 to $92,240 in 2022, an 11.9% increase. Despite this economic improvement, property crime rates did not decrease proportionally, indicating that other factors may be influencing crime trends more significantly than income levels.

Racial demographics in Raymore also shifted during this period, with the white population decreasing from 86% in 2013 to 77% in 2022, while the black population increased from 6% to 10%. The Hispanic population also grew from 2% to 5%. These changes coincided with the overall increase in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the observed patterns. If current trends persist, we might expect to see a slight decrease or stabilization in burglary rates, a moderate increase in larceny theft cases (potentially reaching around 330-350 incidents annually), a continued rise in motor vehicle thefts (possibly exceeding 50-60 cases per year), and arson cases likely remaining low and sporadic.

In summary, Raymore has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends amidst significant population growth. While some crime categories like burglary have shown improvement relative to population growth, others such as motor vehicle theft have emerged as growing concerns. The city's changing demographics and increasing density appear to be correlated with these trends, suggesting a need for targeted crime prevention strategies that address the unique challenges of a rapidly growing suburban area.