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Property Crime Trends in Boiling Spring Lakes: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Boiling Spring Lakes, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 93 incidents in 2010 to 86 in 2022, representing a 7.5% reduction. This change occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing from 6,967 in 2010 to 8,506 in 2022, a 22.1% rise.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 34 burglaries, which decreased to 26 in 2022, a 23.5% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 4.88 in 2010 to 3.06 in 2022, representing a 37.3% decrease. Interestingly, despite this decline in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, its improvements have outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have remained relatively stable, with 57 cases in 2010 and 58 in 2022, a minor 1.8% increase. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased from 8.18 in 2010 to 6.82 in 2022, a 16.6% reduction. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 0.04% to 0.05% over this period, indicating that the city's larceny-theft rate has remained relatively consistent with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low, with only 2 incidents reported in both 2010 and 2022. However, due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022, a 17.2% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.02% to 0.01%, suggesting that the city has maintained better control over this type of crime compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with no reported incidents in 2010 and 2022. However, there was a spike in 2016 with 7 reported cases, representing 1.18% of state arsons that year. This anomaly suggests a temporary increase in arson activity that was subsequently addressed.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 289 per square mile in 2010 to 353 in 2022, a 22.1% rise. During this same period, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 people decreased from 13.35 in 2010 to 10.11 in 2022, a 24.3% reduction. This inverse relationship suggests that increased population density may have contributed to improved community vigilance and crime prevention.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends over the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on historical data and current socioeconomic factors, it is projected that the total number of property crimes could decrease by an additional 10-15% by 2029. This forecast assumes that current crime prevention strategies and community engagement efforts remain in place or improve.
In summary, Boiling Spring Lakes has demonstrated a positive trend in managing property crimes over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been seen in burglary rates, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have remained relatively stable when adjusted for population growth. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates despite population growth suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community involvement. These trends, if continued, position the city favorably for future public safety and community well-being.
