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Property Crime Trends in Blackfoot, Idaho: A Decade of Change Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Blackfoot, located in Idaho, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 37.1%, from 437 to 275 incidents. During the same period, the population grew by 19.5%, from 13,809 to 16,503 residents, indicating a divergence between crime rates and population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 91 burglaries, which increased to 117 in 2012 before steadily decreasing to 34 in 2021. However, 2022 saw a sharp increase to 95 burglaries. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.59 in 2010 to 2.16 in 2021, before rising to 5.76 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 2.11% in 2010, peaking at 3.18% in 2018, and ending at 4.58% in 2022. This recent uptick suggests a need for increased focus on burglary prevention strategies.
Larceny theft has shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 337 incidents, which decreased to 159 in 2022, representing a 52.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 24.41 in 2010 to 9.63 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases decreased from 1.82% in 2010 to 1.56% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This significant improvement suggests effective local strategies in combating larceny theft.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents increased from 9 in 2010 to 26 in 2021, before slightly decreasing to 21 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.65 in 2010 to 1.65 in 2021, then decreased to 1.27 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 1.03% in 2010 to 2.46% in 2021, before dropping to 1.72% in 2022. This fluctuation indicates a need for continued vigilance in addressing motor vehicle theft.
Arson cases have shown a concerning upward trend. From just 1 incident in 2010, the number rose to 6 in 2021 and 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.07 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2021, before slightly decreasing to 0.24 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's contribution to state arson cases rose dramatically from 0.57% in 2010 to 6.59% in 2021, ending at 3.92% in 2022. This trend suggests a need for targeted arson prevention and investigation efforts.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,882 in 2013 to $58,658 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 449 to 275. Additionally, the rise in home ownership percentage from 66% in 2013 to 73% in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between stable housing and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in burglary rates, continued decrease in larceny theft, fluctuating but generally stable motor vehicle theft rates, and a possible plateau in arson cases. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously due to the complex nature of crime trends and potential unforeseen factors.
In conclusion, Blackfoot has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in larceny theft. However, the recent uptick in burglaries and the concerning trend in arson cases highlight areas requiring continued attention. The correlation between rising incomes, increased home ownership, and decreased crime rates suggests that economic development and housing stability may play crucial roles in further reducing property crime in the coming years.
