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Property Crime Trends in Beverly Hills, Missouri: A Tale of Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Beverly Hills, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2016, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 50 in 2011 and ending at 36 in 2016, representing a 28% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 532 to 590, an increase of about 10.9%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a significant downward trend over the observed period. In 2011, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to 10 by 2016, marking a 60% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 47 per 1,000 people in 2011 to 16.9 per 1,000 in 2016. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.08% in 2011 to 0.04% in 2016. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness in the city.
Larceny theft trends showed more volatility. Starting at 24 incidents in 2011, it dropped to 9 in 2012 and 2013, before rising again to 21 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, from 45.1 in 2011 to 35.6 in 2016. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.01% to 0.02%. This fluctuation might indicate changing economic conditions or varying effectiveness of prevention strategies over the years.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an overall increase, despite some fluctuations. From 1 incident in 2011, it rose to 9 in 2015, before slightly decreasing to 5 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.9 in 2011 to 8.5 in 2016. More notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.03% in 2016, indicating a faster growth in this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson data was only available for 2016, showing 1 incident, which represented 0.12% of state arsons. With only one data point, it's not possible to discern a trend or make meaningful comparisons over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $32,103 in 2013 to $37,294 in 2016, total property crimes decreased from 25 to 36 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates in Beverly Hills may continue to decrease slightly if current trends hold. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the limited data range and potential external factors that could influence crime rates.
In summary, Beverly Hills has experienced a general decrease in property crimes from 2011 to 2016, particularly in burglaries, while seeing an increase in motor vehicle thefts. The inverse correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that economic improvements may play a role in reducing criminal activities. These trends, if continued, could lead to further reductions in property crime rates in the coming years, potentially enhancing the overall safety and quality of life for residents of Beverly Hills.
