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Property Crime Trends in Bertram, Texas: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bertram, Texas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 58.33% from 24 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022. This decline is particularly noteworthy given the significant population growth of 41.63% during the same period, from 4,088 residents in 2010 to 5,790 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which peaked at 15 in 2012 before decreasing to 3 in 2022, representing a 57.14% reduction over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.71 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022, a substantial 69.59% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0% and 0.01% throughout the period, indicating that burglary rates in the city generally aligned with or were slightly below state trends.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a declining trend. From 17 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 5 in 2022, a 70.59% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.16 in 2010 to 0.86 in 2022, a 79.33% reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained consistently at 0%, suggesting that these crimes were less prevalent in the city compared to state averages.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately increased. From no reported cases in 2010, it peaked at 5 incidents in 2015 before settling at 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 in 2010 to 0.35 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.01%, indicating that this crime remained relatively low compared to state levels.
Arson cases were sporadic, with only one year (2012) reporting 2 incidents. In most years, including 2010 and 2022, no arson cases were reported. This translates to a rate that peaked at 0.47 per 1,000 residents in 2012 but was 0 in most years. The city's contribution to state arson statistics was 0.06% in 2012 and 0% in all other years, suggesting that arson was not a significant ongoing concern in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $55,386 in 2013 to $72,136 in 2022, a 30.24% increase, property crime rates per 1,000 residents fell from 3.83 to 1.73, a 54.83% decrease. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in homeownership rates, which grew from 79% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, and the decline in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates could further decrease to approximately 1.2 incidents per 1,000 residents, assuming continued growth in median income and homeownership rates. This projection suggests a potential 30.64% reduction from the 2022 rate.
In summary, Bertram has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates despite substantial population growth. The most notable decreases were in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft showed a slight increase but remained low. The strong correlations between rising median income, increasing homeownership rates, and declining crime rates suggest that economic improvements and community stability may be key factors in the city's crime reduction. These trends position Bertram favorably for continued low property crime rates in the coming years, reflecting positively on the city's safety and quality of life.
