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Property Crime Trends in Bernie, Missouri: A Small City's Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bernie, a small municipality in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its property crime rates and population. The total number of property crimes varied from a high of 23 in 2012 and 2019 to a low of 7 in 2020. Over this period, the population saw modest growth, increasing from 2,268 in 2010 to 2,150 in 2022, representing a 5.2% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which decreased to 2 in 2011 and 2013, but spiked to 6 in 2012. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 1.76 in 2010 to 1.86 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting a growing concentration of this crime type relative to state levels. This trend indicates that while the absolute numbers remain low, burglary has become a more prominent issue for the city in recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Bernie, showed a general upward trend from 2010 to 2019, before a sharp decline in 2020. The number of incidents rose from 9 in 2010 to 18 in 2018 and 2019, then dropped to just 3 in 2020, before slightly increasing to 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, peaking at 9.03 in 2019 and falling to 3.26 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable at 0.01% to 0.02%, indicating that this crime type's prevalence in Bernie is consistent with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 2 per year, with the highest count of 2 occurring in 2010, 2016, and 2022. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.93, which occurred in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.02%, suggesting that this crime type is not a significant concern for Bernie compared to other areas in Missouri.
Arson incidents in Bernie have been extremely rare, with only one reported case in 2012. This single incident represented 0.1% of state arsons for that year. Given the scarcity of arson events, it's difficult to draw meaningful trends or make predictions about this crime type for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $32,086 in 2013 to $39,487 in 2021, property crimes generally decreased, with some fluctuations. For instance, property crimes dropped from 20 in 2013 to 7 in 2020, while median income rose. However, this correlation is not perfect, as evidenced by the increase to 13 property crimes in 2022 despite continued income growth.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the recent trends and considering the city's modest population changes, we might expect annual property crime totals to range between 10 and 15 incidents per year. Burglary rates are likely to remain steady at around 3-4 cases annually, while larceny-theft may stabilize at 8-10 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, with 1-2 cases annually.
In summary, Bernie has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with a general trend towards lower crime levels in recent years. The most significant changes have been observed in larceny-theft, while burglary and motor vehicle theft have remained relatively stable. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and decreasing property crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in crime prevention. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies could help sustain or further improve these positive trends in property crime rates.
