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Property Crime Trends in Belvidere, NJ: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Belvidere, a town in New Jersey, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of gradual population decline. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, peaking at 88 incidents in 2016 and reaching a low of 20 in 2015. By 2022, property crimes stood at 38 incidents, representing a 65% increase from 2010. During this same period, the population decreased by 7.6%, from 2,741 in 2010 to 2,532 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there was only 1 reported burglary, which increased dramatically to 54 in 2016, before declining to 6 in 2022. This represents a 500% increase over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.36 in 2010 to 2.37 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also increased significantly, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022. This trend suggests that while the overall population decreased, the city experienced a disproportionate increase in burglaries compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in Belvidere, showed a more modest increase. In 2010, there were 22 reported incidents, which rose to 31 by 2022, a 40.9% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 8.03 in 2010 to 12.24 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents grew from 0.05% to 0.09% over this period. This trend indicates that larceny theft has become more prevalent in the city, outpacing the state average growth rate.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but showed an increase over time. From zero reported cases in 2010, it rose to 1 incident in 2022. This translates to an increase from 0 to 0.39 incidents per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% to 0.02%. While the absolute numbers are small, this trend suggests a growing concern in a previously unaffected area.
Arson incidents in Belvidere have been rare, with only one reported case in 2013, representing 0.48% of state arsons that year. In all other years from 2010 to 2022, no arsons were reported. This isolated incident does not establish a trend but highlights the infrequency of this crime in the city.
A notable correlation exists between the increase in property crimes and the decrease in homeownership rates. The percentage of owner-occupied homes declined from 67% in 2013 to 55% in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes. This trend suggests that lower homeownership rates may be associated with higher property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Belvidere may see a slight increase in overall property crimes to approximately 42 incidents annually. This projection assumes a continuation of current trends in population decline and changes in homeownership rates.
In summary, Belvidere has experienced a significant increase in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny thefts, despite a declining population. The city's share of state property crimes has grown, indicating a localized increase in criminal activity. The correlation between declining homeownership and rising property crime rates suggests potential socio-economic factors influencing these trends. As the city moves forward, addressing these property crime issues while considering the changing demographics and housing dynamics will be crucial for improving public safety and community well-being.
