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Property Crime Trends in East Orange: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
East Orange, located in New Jersey, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased by 40.7%, from 1,367 to 810. During this same period, the population increased by 3.6%, from 64,299 to 66,625. This interesting contrast between declining crime rates and population growth sets the stage for a deeper analysis of property crime trends in the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 351 reported burglaries, which dropped to just 72 in 2020, representing a 79.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.46 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.08 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the decade, peaking at 2.58% in 2017 before declining to 1.27% in 2020. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the city.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a more moderate decrease. In 2010, there were 656 reported cases, which reduced to 566 in 2020, a 13.7% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.20 in 2010 to 8.49 in 2020. Interestingly, while the absolute number of larceny-thefts decreased, the city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 1.38% in 2010 to 1.83% in 2020. This suggests that while the city improved its larceny-theft situation, it did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen a substantial reduction. From 360 reported cases in 2010, it dropped to 172 in 2020, a 52.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.60 in 2010 to 2.58 in 2020. Despite this significant decrease, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased only slightly from 3.64% in 2010 to 3.18% in 2020, indicating that motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue relative to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but generally trended downward. From 19 reported cases in 2010, it decreased to 6 in 2020, a 68.4% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.30 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2020. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 4.19% in 2010 to 3.92% in 2020, suggesting that the city's arson reduction efforts have been slightly more effective than the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between property crime trends and median income in the city. As median income increased from $36,871 in 2013 to $50,781.5 in 2020, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further 25% reduction in overall property crimes if current trends continue. This would bring the total number of property crimes to around 608 per year.
In summary, East Orange has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, despite a growing population. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a city that is becoming safer and more prosperous. However, the persistent higher-than-state-average rates in some categories indicate that continued focus on crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining and improving upon these gains in the coming years.
