Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 9 incidents, which increased to 27 by 2022, a 200% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.27 in 2010 to 0.80 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, with a peak of 0.23% in 2020. This suggests that while other property crimes have decreased, motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern in the city.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively low but variable. In 2010 and 2011, no arsons were reported. The highest number was recorded in 2017 with 7 cases. In 2022, there were 3 arson cases. The rate per 1,000 residents in 2022 was 0.09. The city's share of state arsons has fluctuated significantly, from 0% in some years to a high of 0.92% in 2017, settling at 0.49% in 2022. This volatility in arson rates and state share suggests that even small changes in the number of incidents can have a significant impact on the city's statistics due to the low overall numbers.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $95,671 in 2013 to $103,387 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between the increasing Asian population (from 4% in 2013 to 8% in 2022) and the reduction in overall property crime rates, suggesting that demographic changes might be influencing crime patterns.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crimes, with larceny theft and burglary likely to maintain their downward trajectories. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to pose a challenge, potentially increasing or stabilizing at current levels. Arson cases are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their sporadic nature.

In summary, Ballwin has shown significant improvement in overall property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The city's growing population, increasing median income, and changing demographics appear to correlate with these positive trends. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a notable exception to this improvement, suggesting a need for targeted prevention strategies. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on these trends will be crucial for sustaining and improving public safety.