Loading Content...
Property Crime Surge in New Madrid: A Study of Declining Population and Rising Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
New Madrid, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 152.38%, from 21 to 53 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 17.93%, from 3,636 to 2,984 residents, creating a complex dynamic between crime rates and demographic shifts.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which increased to 14 by 2022, a 600% rise. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.55 in 2010 to 4.69 in 2022, a substantial increase. The city's share of state burglaries also rose dramatically, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022. This disproportionate increase suggests that burglary has become a more pressing issue for the community relative to the rest of Missouri.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a more moderate increase. From 19 cases in 2010, the number rose to 36 in 2022, an 89.47% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 5.23 to 12.06 over the same period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents grew from 0.02% to 0.05%, indicating a slightly higher share of this type of crime relative to Missouri as a whole.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. From zero incidents in 2010, it rose to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 1.01. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, rising slightly from 0% to 0.01% over the 12-year period. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has increased, it remains a less significant issue compared to other property crimes in the city.
Arson cases have been rare but showed an increase. From no reported cases in 2010, there was 1 incident in 2022. This translates to a rate increase from 0 to 0.34 per 1,000 people. Notably, the city's share of state arson cases jumped from 0% to 0.16% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase relative to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 807 per square mile in 2010 to 662 in 2022, property crimes increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 73% in 2013 to 69% in 2022, and the percentage of Black residents fluctuated but overall decreased from 23% to 22%, property crime rates increased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crime rates if current trends persist. Burglary and larceny-theft are likely to see the most significant increases, potentially reaching 20 and 45 incidents respectively by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 3-4 incidents annually, while arson cases could remain sporadic but present.
In summary, New Madrid has experienced a concerning increase in property crimes, particularly burglary and larceny-theft, despite a declining population. This trend suggests a growing challenge for law enforcement and community safety initiatives. The disproportionate increase in the city's share of state crime statistics, especially in burglary and arson, indicates that New Madrid is facing unique challenges compared to the rest of Missouri. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, point to a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement efforts to address the root causes of property crime in the city.
